For nearly half a year, the frontlines in Ukraine remained almost completely unchanged. People immediately started drawing comparisons between this war and the one more than a century ago, World War I, where men slaughtered each other for minimal gains, sometimes no more than a few meters of territory. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south failed to recapture the crucial city of Kherson, and Russian advances in Donetsk Oblast (part of the eastern Donbas region) had come to a halt. People became tired of hearing about the war, and morale was fleeting for both sides as neither had major gains to report.
But then, on September 6, everything changed. Ukraine launched a massive counteroffensive. By September 10, Ukraine had liberated 2,500 kilometers of Ukrainian territory from Russian occupation, including the major Russian supply hub of Izium and the transportation center of Kupiansk. By October 4th, Ukraine had secured multiple breakthroughs across the Oskil river, which the Russians were trying to use as a barrier against the Ukrainian advance. They also captured the strategic town of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, as well as re-entering Luhansk Oblast, a region the Ukrainians had been fully pushed out of only 2 months before.
But then, on September 6, everything changed. Ukraine launched a massive counteroffensive. By September 10, Ukraine had liberated 2,500 kilometers of Ukrainian territory from Russian occupation, including the major Russian supply hub of Izium and the transportation center of Kupiansk. By October 4th, Ukraine had secured multiple breakthroughs across the Oskil river, which the Russians were trying to use as a barrier against the Ukrainian advance. They also captured the strategic town of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, as well as re-entering Luhansk Oblast, a region the Ukrainians had been fully pushed out of only 2 months before.
Ukrainian Artillery Vehicles fire outside of Kharkiv during the counteroffensive, 8th September, 2022
On Feb 24, 2022, Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Immediately, explosions rocked cities across the country, and troops started taking large swathes of territory in all directions. Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, signed a decree that all males aged 18-60 were barred from leaving the country, as they would be needed to bear the oncoming storm. The Russian government predicted that the capital of Ukraine, Kyiv, would fall within 72 hours, and as Russian armored columns rapidly approached the city, this prediction was seeming to be more accurate.
But a surge of patriotism overwhelmed the country as they saw their motherland close to crumbling. The Ukrainian military employed weapon systems they had gotten from NATO and western FIM-92 Stinger rockets to ensure Russia did not gain total control of the Skies. A Ukrainian pilot, nicknamed the “Ghost of Kyiv,” was rumored to have shot down six Russian jets in a MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jet. While these rumors were later confirmed to be false, they were a huge morale booster for the Ukrainian army, who pushed back and halted the Russian advance. By April, Russia had fully withdrawn from the northern sector with heavy casualties and shifted their forces to the southeast. Claims that the failed attack on Kyiv was a “diversion” by Russian propagandists were easily disproven, as it became increasingly clear that Russia had failed their main objective.
Things were not going all well for the Ukrainians, though. The next few months saw some of the most grueling and brutal fighting of the war. While not much progress was made for both sides, the Russians were able to hold their eastern gains, end the Siege of Mariupol (a city in southern Donetsk Oblast), and capture all of Luhansk Oblast. The path ahead looked uncertain, and the international community temporarily looked away from the situation in Ukraine to look at other matters.
Our story then winds up where we started, a huge success for Ukraine. But what allowed this victory to happen? Here are 3 reasons:
But a surge of patriotism overwhelmed the country as they saw their motherland close to crumbling. The Ukrainian military employed weapon systems they had gotten from NATO and western FIM-92 Stinger rockets to ensure Russia did not gain total control of the Skies. A Ukrainian pilot, nicknamed the “Ghost of Kyiv,” was rumored to have shot down six Russian jets in a MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jet. While these rumors were later confirmed to be false, they were a huge morale booster for the Ukrainian army, who pushed back and halted the Russian advance. By April, Russia had fully withdrawn from the northern sector with heavy casualties and shifted their forces to the southeast. Claims that the failed attack on Kyiv was a “diversion” by Russian propagandists were easily disproven, as it became increasingly clear that Russia had failed their main objective.
Things were not going all well for the Ukrainians, though. The next few months saw some of the most grueling and brutal fighting of the war. While not much progress was made for both sides, the Russians were able to hold their eastern gains, end the Siege of Mariupol (a city in southern Donetsk Oblast), and capture all of Luhansk Oblast. The path ahead looked uncertain, and the international community temporarily looked away from the situation in Ukraine to look at other matters.
Our story then winds up where we started, a huge success for Ukraine. But what allowed this victory to happen? Here are 3 reasons:
Reason 1: Kherson Counteroffensive
On July 9th, Ukrainian government authorities urged residents of Kherson Oblast to create shelters to “survive the Ukrainian counteroffensive.” Over the course of July, the Ukrainian government, military, and president would openly talk about liberating Kherson and other southern regions of the country. This quickly drew suspicion from military analysts, who found it peculiar that Ukraine would so openly announce such a large military operation. Many theorized that this was a trap to lure Russian troops across the Dnipro River and then blow up the bridges behind them, or that this was a way of diverting Russian troops to attack somewhere else.
Russia dismissed these initial suspicions and sent some of its best troops to defend the area. Alas, when the counterattack finally came in, Ukraine had a hard time making substantial gains, although more progress was made than Russia expected, with the counteroffensive being more of a slow grind of Russian forces than a quick capture of the region. Claims by the Ukrainian government that they would capture all of Kherson Oblast by September were proven wrong when the capital of the region was still under Russian control by October 1st. However, as events progressed, it would become clear that Kherson was not the main focus of the Ukrainians.
By announcing their assault on Kherson, the Ukrainians succeeded in drawing the Russian’s finest troops to one single location. This allowed them freedom to maneuver and essentially attack in any location free of skilled Russian troops. The Ukrainians quickly attacked Kharkiv, making devastating gains against the undermanned Russians, not expecting an attack from the north. Some, especially the Russians, said that the attacks were “opportunistic” and that Russian forces “strategically withdrew to reinforce more important positions”; however, it is possible that the lockdown of Russian forces in Kherson followed by the swift takeover of Kharkiv was Ukraine’s plan all along. Kherson is merely an anvil, where Kharkiv is the hammer.
And by no means has the hammer stopped moving. At the time of writing, Ukraine captured the strategic city of Lyman only a dozen hours ago (Oct 3), and dozens of bridgeheads have been made across the Oskil river to prepare for another deep push into Luhansk Oblast. The massive gains Ukraine has made in the north would not have been possible without their clever holdup of Russian forces in the south.
Aaaand this is where I thought the story ended for now, but as of October 5th, Ukraine has made huge gains on the Kherson front after deploying troops to defend Kharkiv. Russia is falling for the same trick twice!
Russia dismissed these initial suspicions and sent some of its best troops to defend the area. Alas, when the counterattack finally came in, Ukraine had a hard time making substantial gains, although more progress was made than Russia expected, with the counteroffensive being more of a slow grind of Russian forces than a quick capture of the region. Claims by the Ukrainian government that they would capture all of Kherson Oblast by September were proven wrong when the capital of the region was still under Russian control by October 1st. However, as events progressed, it would become clear that Kherson was not the main focus of the Ukrainians.
By announcing their assault on Kherson, the Ukrainians succeeded in drawing the Russian’s finest troops to one single location. This allowed them freedom to maneuver and essentially attack in any location free of skilled Russian troops. The Ukrainians quickly attacked Kharkiv, making devastating gains against the undermanned Russians, not expecting an attack from the north. Some, especially the Russians, said that the attacks were “opportunistic” and that Russian forces “strategically withdrew to reinforce more important positions”; however, it is possible that the lockdown of Russian forces in Kherson followed by the swift takeover of Kharkiv was Ukraine’s plan all along. Kherson is merely an anvil, where Kharkiv is the hammer.
And by no means has the hammer stopped moving. At the time of writing, Ukraine captured the strategic city of Lyman only a dozen hours ago (Oct 3), and dozens of bridgeheads have been made across the Oskil river to prepare for another deep push into Luhansk Oblast. The massive gains Ukraine has made in the north would not have been possible without their clever holdup of Russian forces in the south.
Aaaand this is where I thought the story ended for now, but as of October 5th, Ukraine has made huge gains on the Kherson front after deploying troops to defend Kharkiv. Russia is falling for the same trick twice!
A map showing the gains of Ukraine in the past 2 months. Blue represents Ukrainian territory taken back from Russia, Red represents Russian controlled territory, Diagonally striped Red represents territory Russia had control of prior to the invasion, and Diagonally striped Blue represents areas where Ukrainian Partisans are present.
Reason 2: Russian Morale
On September 21st, 2022, Putin announced a “Partial Mobilization” of 300,000 men, mostly former veterans. This was detrimental to Russian morale: some 800,000 young men fled the country to escape the draft. It is unlikely that all 300,000 conscripts will make it to the frontline. As so many men are fleeing the country, it is hard to find enough eligible soldiers.
This event represented only one instance of crumbling Russian morale, both on the battlefield and in the country itself. The truth is that invading a country is not actually that popular a thing to do, and as Russians enter the cities of their Slavic brothers and sisters, burning and plundering and killing, they wonder what they are fighting for. Many have come to the conclusion that they are fighting a pointless war for a greedy politician who wants nothing more than power for himself. Furthermore, Ukrainian promises to treat Russian prisoners with respect and kindness has removed any risk attached to surrender. Many Russian prisoners have surrendered and urged their comrades to follow suit.
This event represented only one instance of crumbling Russian morale, both on the battlefield and in the country itself. The truth is that invading a country is not actually that popular a thing to do, and as Russians enter the cities of their Slavic brothers and sisters, burning and plundering and killing, they wonder what they are fighting for. Many have come to the conclusion that they are fighting a pointless war for a greedy politician who wants nothing more than power for himself. Furthermore, Ukrainian promises to treat Russian prisoners with respect and kindness has removed any risk attached to surrender. Many Russian prisoners have surrendered and urged their comrades to follow suit.
President Zelensky of Ukraine has urged Russian conscripts to surrender and sabotage the Russian war effort.
The movement to end the war within Russia has also ramped up. Anti war protests have been present in Russia ever since the start of the war, but they have been especially strong ever since it became clear that Russia was probably not going to win this war. Despite crackdowns by the Russian government, in which 14,906 people were detained between the start of the invasion and March 13th, many people have taken to the streets to condemn the actions of the Kremlin. Many politicians spoke out against the invasion, and those who didn’t flee the country were usually arrested and detained. Musicians also spoke out, such as Belorussian post-punk band Molchyat Doma and legendary Russian rock star Boris Grebenshchikov. The problem with Putin’s iron hold on the country is that, if he grips it too strongly, it will crack and break.
The economic sanctions are doing nothing to help that fragility. As Russians experience economic downturn, with the GDP per capita falling nearly $2000 USD, and more and more people are taking to the streets, despite the risk. War is an expensive business, especially with the modern weapons Russia is using. In the long term, Russia is going to lose a war of attrition. Continued unrest could result in a coup d'état or even an open rebellion against the government by opposition members. This may result in a regime change, ousting Putin and his authoritarian party from power and installing a new, more west-friendly government. There is even a possibility that this new regime would join the European Union. What is certain is that a new government would withdraw its troops from Ukraine and eventually be relieved from the pain of sanctions
The economic sanctions are doing nothing to help that fragility. As Russians experience economic downturn, with the GDP per capita falling nearly $2000 USD, and more and more people are taking to the streets, despite the risk. War is an expensive business, especially with the modern weapons Russia is using. In the long term, Russia is going to lose a war of attrition. Continued unrest could result in a coup d'état or even an open rebellion against the government by opposition members. This may result in a regime change, ousting Putin and his authoritarian party from power and installing a new, more west-friendly government. There is even a possibility that this new regime would join the European Union. What is certain is that a new government would withdraw its troops from Ukraine and eventually be relieved from the pain of sanctions
The people of Yekaterinburg protest the war with signs of «нет войне!» (No to war!)
Reason 3: HIMARS
Ukraine’s staggering victories were of course the result of clever maneuvering, brave acts of fighters on the front lines, and brave leadership, but having trucks with a bunch of giant rockets on them certainly helps, too.
The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) is a U.S.-built rocket artillery platform capable of surgically destroying targets more than 50 miles away. It is a more portable version of the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System and fires six M30 GMLRS rockets, powerful ammunition with a high explosive payload. They gained a prestigious reputation in the 1991 Gulf War, where they were known as “Grid Killers” due to their capability to saturate a 1 klick by 1 klick area (a klick is military jargon for a kilometer) with concentrated fire, essentially obliterating anything within that range. However, they also have the ability to strike very specific targets, such as armored vehicles like tanks and APCs (Armored Personnel Carriers) or enemy bases and bunkers.
A key feature of Russian military strategy is the presence of huge armored columns. These columns consist of tanks and APCs supervised by infantry. The power of these columns was shown at the beginning of the war, when Russian columns approached Kyiv, nearly capturing the city. Now, Ukraine is much more capable of dealing with these columns. Using HIMARS, even a limited barrage can tear an armored column to shreds, destroying loads of enemy vehicles and causing them to retreat.
Another use of HIMARS by Ukraine is for counter-battery fire. Computers in the HIMARS system can detect incoming Russian artillery fire, evaluate its point of origin, and quickly strike that location. This is especially deadly because it is hard for Russian defenders to shoot down these projectiles. On Russian radars, HIMARS rockets have a very similar speed and trajectory to much cheaper BM-21 Grad rockets, a Soviet-Era rocket platform used by both sides. So when a rocket comes in, it is hard to tell whether it is friendly or enemy, and it is hard to tell whether it is a HIMARS rocket, worth shooting an expensive anti-rocket projectile, or a cheap Grad rocket, not worth spending the money on.
The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) is a U.S.-built rocket artillery platform capable of surgically destroying targets more than 50 miles away. It is a more portable version of the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System and fires six M30 GMLRS rockets, powerful ammunition with a high explosive payload. They gained a prestigious reputation in the 1991 Gulf War, where they were known as “Grid Killers” due to their capability to saturate a 1 klick by 1 klick area (a klick is military jargon for a kilometer) with concentrated fire, essentially obliterating anything within that range. However, they also have the ability to strike very specific targets, such as armored vehicles like tanks and APCs (Armored Personnel Carriers) or enemy bases and bunkers.
A key feature of Russian military strategy is the presence of huge armored columns. These columns consist of tanks and APCs supervised by infantry. The power of these columns was shown at the beginning of the war, when Russian columns approached Kyiv, nearly capturing the city. Now, Ukraine is much more capable of dealing with these columns. Using HIMARS, even a limited barrage can tear an armored column to shreds, destroying loads of enemy vehicles and causing them to retreat.
Another use of HIMARS by Ukraine is for counter-battery fire. Computers in the HIMARS system can detect incoming Russian artillery fire, evaluate its point of origin, and quickly strike that location. This is especially deadly because it is hard for Russian defenders to shoot down these projectiles. On Russian radars, HIMARS rockets have a very similar speed and trajectory to much cheaper BM-21 Grad rockets, a Soviet-Era rocket platform used by both sides. So when a rocket comes in, it is hard to tell whether it is friendly or enemy, and it is hard to tell whether it is a HIMARS rocket, worth shooting an expensive anti-rocket projectile, or a cheap Grad rocket, not worth spending the money on.
HIMARS firing a barrage of rockets.
Conclusion
While Putin may think he can take land, culture, and people away from their rightful owners, the war would suggest otherwise. Time and time again, history shows us that fascists have reached their day of judgment. In 1941, the world was a dark place, and no one knew who would prevail. But in the end, fascism proved unsustainable and too malicious for anyone to tolerate, and peace and justice were restored. While Russia may look threatening and scary, time is not on their side. We can only hope peace comes quickly before more are hurt and killed.
ERIK WILBERDING
